Ballon d'Or Top 4

Oct 21, 2023

This year's award ceremony is one of the most anticipated in recent times, with four superstars in genuine contention, each having a year worthy of football's crowning jewel, depending on who you ask. Here's a view of the chances of our Top 4 as we await the 30th of October for the presentation of the trophy!

LIONEL MESSI

KEVIN DE BRUYNE

KYLIAN MBAPPE

We can't talk about the Ballon d'Or without mentioning Messi, and he's back in the conversation for the award after missing out on a nomination last year. In what would be a self-record breaking 8th win of the award, triumph for Leo would further separate him from all the other greats to ever play the game, befittingly too. Anyone who's witnessed his entire career would argue 8 Ballon d’Ors is an understatement still. Gary Lineker once said “if the Ballon d’Or really went to the best player, Messi would win it every year”. Very difficult to dispute seeing as he rarely ever has a bad game, even in a draw or loss. The sheer gap of his record 306 Man of the Match awards compared to second place Cristiano, at an astounding 175, isn’t mentioned enough. Again, no player in Europe’s top five leagues received more Man of the Match awards last season than Messi, with 14. Rarely ever outplayed on the field, and he’s played with and against the very best in the game. Incredible standards to set and maintain over his 19 year career that’s earned him his 16th Ballon d’Or nomination. Bested only by the formidable Cristiano with 18 nominations over 21 seasons.

Messi's longevity at the top is something we may never see again, contending with the very best players of his generation, the previous one, and the next, from the age of 19 through to 36. Always a special performance each year, and what a ride it’s been this past season alone. Starting the PSG campaign in phenomenal form with Neymar, and finishing it in spectacular fashion with Mbappe, while winning a World Cup with Argentina in-between. He finished the title winning season with 16 goals and 16 assists in 32 league appearances, 20 goals and 20 assists in all competitions (39), and the highest average match rating, by some margin too. He led the league in assists, big chances created, and successful dribbles. He was also featured in the team of the week on 19 occasions, the most for any player. Understandably, he wasn't awarded Ligue 1 player of the year, but he was compensated with the Foreign Player of the Year award. A rather stellar club performance that’s perceived as an average one. Truly incredible standards he’s set for himself, he doesn’t get a pass being 35 years of age in a very physical league in Europe. Thierry Henry was already two years into his RB New York spell at 35, Kaka was retiring in Orlando, and Wayne Rooney was two years retired from England, playing in Derby County after a season at DC United. While retirees Gonzalo Higuain, Eden Hazard, Sergio Aguero, and Karim Benzema in Saudi Arabia are all younger than Messi. Some context for what we witnessed last season. Crazy to think that even now, at 36, there's less than a handful of players that can be considered better in the world, and they'd only have him beat physically.

His World Cup performance, Argentina's triumph, and his historic second Golden Ball speaks for itself. Awarded to the best player of the tournament, no player in the history of the World Cup had achieved it twice until him. He also won a Player of the Match award in every round, up to and including the final, the first time ever at a World Cup. He was decisive in every game, responsible for orchestrating the Argentine offense. Controlling the tempo of the game and creating scoring opportunities for his teammates. We'll forever remember the extraordinary assists against the Netherlands and Croatia in the quarters and semis, as well as the huge match-winner against Mexico to steady the ship. He finished with the Silver Boot, a goal shy in the Golden Boot race with 7 goals, including 2 in the final. A magnificent campaign! The global element and prestige of the tournament means it always weighs more than others for the Ballon d’Or consideration, and this year would be no different. The final had 1.5 billion viewers, compared to the UCL final with 450 million. Leo's World Cup success has already earned him another Laureus World Sportsman of the Year award. A sole winner this time around, and still the only footballer or team sport athlete to ever win it. We continue to witness greatness and history following his career, and this year's ceremony could be no different.

KYLIAN MBAPPE

Contrary to most media outlets, we believe Messi's biggest competition for the award is Kylian Mbappe. He had a fantastic year again for PSG, and for France at the World Cup in Qatar. Appearing in a second consecutive final for Le Bleus, this time in a far more commanding role. No Kante, Pogba, or Benzema present, and that fully stacked French team was relying on the 23 year old to deliver in every game. Always a threat on and off the ball, his electric pace makes him unplayable at times for defenders. He stepped up time and time again, and finished with the Golden Boot for the most goals at the tournament, a total of 8, including 3 in the final. A special hat-trick in a World Cup final! Only the second time in the history of the competition, unmatched since 1966 when Geoff Hurst brought it home for England. The nature and timing of Kylian's goals made the match the spectacle it was to behold, breathing nerve-racking excitement into a seemingly decided game. Two players at the peak of their immense forms through the tournament, leaving it all on the field for gold. The match had it all. It came down to that impossible save from Emiliano Martinez, and some cooler heads in the penalty shoot-out to separate the great footballing nations and club teammates. What a game it was, many consider one of the greatest World Cup finals ever.

Kylian continued his goalscoring in Paris, with Leo assisting and vice versa as they clinched the French League title. They combined on 19 goals through the season, with 7 of Kylian’s 10 assists to Messi, and 12 of Leo’s 20 to Mbappe, a great partnership in the end. Mbappe's goals were vital to the campaign, and he won his second Golden Boot of the season for the French Ligue 1, with 29 goals in 34 games played. He also became Paris Saint-Germain's all-time top scorer when he crossed the 200 goal mark in March. A club legend at the age of 24. A true danger man, stretches the pitch every time he’s on it, keeps defenders on their toes, and able to launch off rockets with either foot anywhere around the box. A constant threat! He was named Ligue 1 Player of the Year for a fourth consecutive year, adding to his already impressive individual award haul. After last season, especially at the World Cup, his performance, maturity, and potential excites us all that perhaps the heir to Messi’s throne is here and now? What better city to dream than Paris? (Madrid, maybe)

Interesting to see where the French NT Captain is placed in the rankings, considering the award is given by France Football, hosted in Paris. Another indication the World Cup would weigh more than any other competition, and rightfully so too. Tough to see Erling getting the award over Kylian and drawing first blood at the ceremony, when he wasn't at the World Cup, or deciding the big games for City. In the same season the Prince of Paris was this MASSIVE for club and country, in a World Cup year, playing a key role in both campaigns, not just scoring but playmaking too. Deciding huge games and coming up huge in key moments. Erling was the Man of the Match on only 6 league games last season, despite scoring 36 goals, compared to Kylian's 7. It's never been just about goalscoring stats, and we believe only Lionel has a better chance, putting Kylian at number 2 for us, though it's possible Haaland is compensated with second place.

ERLING HAALAND

Our third favorite, who could easily be placed second, or first. The perceived front runner of the award by most media outlets is non other than the unbelievable Erling Haaland. His freakish goalscoring record, and incredible treble winning debut season at Manchester City is what makes the year’s edition of the Ballon d’Or the tightest in recent times. For the last 3 seasons, fans have touted Erling vs Kylian the next huge award ceremony rivalry, and last season was the first proper bout. With Norway failing to qualify for the World Cup, Haaland was home watching Mbappe play a historic final and wasn’t going to be left out. He scored 36 goals in 35 appearances in the league, winning the Golden Boot while breaking Andy Cole's and Alan Shearer’s long-standing record of 34 since 1995, in what was possibly the greatest debut season of any Premier League signing ever. He didn’t stop there, he won the Champions League Golden Boot as well, with 12 goals in 11 games as he helped Manchester City to their first ever Champions League title. Finishing the season with an incredible 52 goals in 53 games and 9 assists. He's already won the UEFA Player of the season, and is expected to win The Best FIFA Men's award for 2023, which wouldn't include the performances at the World Cup.

Any other season, Erling wins the Ballon d'Or as well, resoundingly too, based on performances in Europe, but it was a World Cup year unfortunately for him. He has 27 goals in 28 games for Norway since 2019, including 5 in the 6 World Cup Qualifier games he played, but it wasn’t enough to achieve qualification to Qatar. They finished 3rd place behind Netherlands and Turkey, missing out on a playoff spot. There’s certainly enough quality in the squad to be at the 2026 World Cup, and maybe inspire a deep run at some point in his career. His absence in Qatar may however prove costly should another lift the Ballon d'Or later this month. Memories of Pavel Nedved claiming the 2003 award many thought Thierry Henry would, for having a greater impact in the national team and the big European games. Haaland might also be absent at the Euros in the summer after failing to secure qualification for Norway, while Kylian and France would be favorites to win the competition. Exciting times ahead in the Ballon d'Or ceremonies, that's for sure.

Another particular criticism of his season perhaps, is the lack of goal involvements and the forgettable performances in the latter stages of the cup competitions. Despite winning the Champions League Golden boot, Erling was quiet in both legs of the semi-finals and the final, barely involved or on the ball. The same was the case in the FA Cup semis and final, as well as the European Supercup Final earlier this season. The Ballon d'Or usually goes to the big time player being decisive for his team in big moments, and so far he hasn't been crucial in the tougher cup games, not since his hat-trick in the 6-0 thumping of Burnley in the FA Cup 6th round. For the bigger games, you remember the Mahrez hat-trick and Gundogan brace in the FA cup, then Kevin, Bernardo, Grealish and Rodri in the Champions League against Real Madrid and Inter Milan. Still an incredible debut season which they would all be looking to build on. 52 goals with room for improvement? He already has 8 league goals in the 7 games played this season with Kevin out injured. Who's stopping them from going back to back in the Premier League and Champions League? Erling will have his Ballon in this ceremony or the next!

KEVIN DE BRUYNE

Haaland was named the Premier League Player of the Year, and the Manchester City Player of the Year, but many would make arguments that he isn't their MVP, or the league's. That rests still with Kevin De Bruyne, who was again brilliant this season as he helped the team to the treble with 10 goals and 31 assists. Leading all of Europe in assists, and his partnership with Erling has proven to be a deadly combo for managers and defenders all season. One player looking to create and assist, and another on the prowl looking to score. Time and time again he came up huge for them, creating the decisive moment in the tough games. A key component to the way Manchester City attack and breakdown defenses. The poise and technique of his game, his vision, pinpoint accurate passes and crosses with either foot, perfectly weighted and served on a platter, and a proclivity for scoring absolute bangers occasionally. He was certainly missed in the UCL final, and has been missed so far this season, underlining his value to the great team.

In the World Cup, Belgium struggled as a whole with a number of their key players having fitness concerns and far from their best. Kevin wasn't able to orchestrate a similar third place finish run they managed in 2018. He needed a proper showing and a deep run to really be considered, but they were eliminated in the group stages, hurting his chances against Messi and Mbappe. He wasn't great in the first two games of the tournament, but he controlled the decisive final game against Croatia. Created tons of scoring opportunities, but they weren't able to convert. A little too late in the end, so he just went back to Manchester and continued dominating Europe. 18 league assists and 7 goals in 32 games to clinch his fifth Premier League title, 7 assists and 2 goals to bring the much coveted Champions League trophy to the City of Manchester. His chance creation prowess and technique was in full effect to the delight of footy purists out there. The fact that Haaland wasn't clinical means he could have easily finished with 8/10 more assists. 41 goal involvements from midfield is ridiculous regardless of his placement in the rankings.

Their triumph in the FA Cup was only his second win of the tournament in his 8 attempts, despite dominating the League and the League Cup with 5 medals of each. Showing how much more committed and prepared they were this season, and his and Gundogan's leadership on and off the pitch played a huge role in that. He's been the top creative force in Europe for the past 4/5 seasons if you exclude Messi, and now many more of his chances created are getting converted. You could say it's the Haaland factor, which is true, but Alvarez could be doing just as well in his own way, with such quality service. Last season the dedication was different as he steered the well-oiled Pep machine to league and cup success, never putting a foot wrong when it mattered. He and his creative team, with chauffeur and butler-like service, were picking apart defenses across Europe for Erling to feast. After trying and failing for years, the treble seems within reach every season with much more consistent performances like he delivered last season. We wouldn't bet against him to finally win a Premier League Player of the Month award this season when he returns.